Stock Trading - Stock Quotes - Stock Prices

October 30, 2007

Why Do Share Prices Rise and Fall?

The question in the title might be a little unfair. After all, if share prices are inherently unpredictable (and in one sense, they are - more on that later), there's no answer. Nevertheless, over a period of decades the stock market has had better returns than any other investment - 8-12% depending on various factors and it's one of the most widely studied markets on Earth. With that kind of historical data and brain power to lean on, one should be able to make a few valid observations. Well, here are some. You judge their validity.

In the long run, there's no doubt share prices are heavily influenced by earnings. When companies make money, consistently over long periods, investor confidence grows and bid the price of shares up. What influences earnings and confidence?

Everything from interest rates to debt load, taxes, lawsuits, management, technological and other social changes, and the general economy affect earnings - both short and long term.

Almost all companies borrow money and even when they don't their competitors, suppliers and customers do. That affects how much money they have to invest in research and new products or improving existing ones, relative to other companies in the similar lines of business.

Sometimes even stellar managers can be threatened by social or technological changes, unless they evolve the company to adapt. In that case, a company which once sold light bulbs - and made good profits doing so - can become an almost entirely different company in time. General Electric - the only original Dow stock that is still part of the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) - is an excellent example.

Over shorter time frames, influences become even more numerous and harder to quantify. Everything from the latest analyst recommendation and rumor or actual news event to fraud, the herd mentality and a blizzard of technical factors plays a part.

Google's share price quadrupled in a two year time frame and is projected to grow yet another 50% over the next year. Microsoft - once the most reliable growth stock in the world, even ridiculously so as admitted by its senior executives - has been in the doldrums for years now. Earnings alone can not explain these and other, similar, cases.

Share prices today are in large part due to expectations of what the price will be tomorrow next month or next year. That expectation is affected by technical analysis (which may or not be well founded) and sheer guesses about what other investors are thinking or will think. Along with these there are occasional out and out cases of fraud, lawsuits from nowhere and other unexpected circumstances.

Political changes play a part, and sometimes they too are unexpected by most investors. No one can say when or whether a tax bill will pass that reduces or increases corporate rates. The election of a new Prime Minister or President can have a large, short term affect or longer, sometimes, depending on the individual.

And, then there's the inherent unpredictability mentioned earlier. Short-term, and to some degree long-term, prices are a statistical phenomenon. As with any statistical effect you can't make a prediction - except with some degree of probability. And, since investors - some of whom own large blocks - can change their minds on a whim, you can only make educated guesses about what or when those choices will be.

So, what's the average investor to do? That depends on the kind of investor you want to be.

For those with the talent and time to do intense moment-by-moment research, it is possible to do well in short-term trading. Though almost all day traders lose money. For those, even big risk takers, who are more inclined to fundamental factors and willing to research long-term trends - take comfort in the fact that 8-12% return over decades is as good a prediction as you need.

Posted by Stock at 05:28 PM | Comments (0)

October 24, 2007

Tips on Buying and Selling Stocks

'SOFT' FACTORS

The first thing to consider about investing isn't technical at all. EPS, P/E, P/S, MA and EMA, RSI and dozens of other indicators are all important. But start at the beginning by looking not outside, but in.

What kind of investor are you? Young with a little capital to risk but a large earnings potential over several decades? Retired, or near it, with a healthy savings but living on limited income?

And, more psychologically, what's your temperament for research and your tolerance for risk? Are you comfortable with statistics or intuitive? Are you detail oriented, or tend to look at the big picture? Not mutually exclusive categories, to be sure.

All these factors will influence your investment strategy. You do have a strategy, right? If not, go back to square one and develop that first.

'HARD' FACTORS

PEG - Projected Earnings Growth

Traditionally, Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio was a helpful indicator of value. Low price, relative to large earnings (per share) suggested a company's share price would likely rise in the future. But that was before thousands of new companies entered the public markets and when investing meant buying Coca-Cola stock.

But P/E isn't entirely useless, even today. Just supplement it with a little more information to calculate the PEG - Projected Earnings Growth.

Calculate PEG by taking the P/E and dividing it by the projected growth in earnings. For example, a stock with a P/E of 20 and projected earning growth next year of 10% would have a PEG of 2 (20/10 = 2). The lower the number the less you're paying for a unit of future earnings growth. Therefore, a company with a high P/E may still be a value if it has a high projected earnings.

Of course, the key is getting accurate projections. While no one can predict with certainty, many Internet sites provide those numbers and over time, with diligence, you can find one you trust. Just as deciding to buy is, in small part, finding a large PEG stock, electing a time to sell means estimating when PEG is likely to take a turn downward. So, tracking PEG over time in the form of a simple chart should be a weekly (or more often) task on your research list.

ROE - Return On Equity

Some companies can make silk purses out of pigs ears, others couldn't make a profit if they were given Apple's engineering and marketing teams for free. Return on Equity is one measure of how well a company uses its assets to produce earnings. (By the way, silk comes from worms, not pigs.)

Easy to calculate, simply divide Net Income by Book Value (assets minus liabilities). Both numbers needed are easy to obtain from Internet sites. Three percent is low, 15% is healthy - but be sure to compare to other companies in the same economic sector, and track the number over the long term.

Obviously, when projected ROE is high (based on historical trend) you want to buy. Timing the sell is a matter of estimating when ROE is trending downward.

Some factors to consider for the latter involve major mergers which look to be unwise (HP acquiring Compaq is one example), major technology or management changes (this can be positive or negative), lawsuits initiated or settled, and general economic factors influencing that company more than others.

Continually add to your database and your toolkit. Track the numbers and add new numbers to track. MA - moving averages and RSI - Relative Strength Indicator are two of the more common technical indicators used, for example. After you're comfortable with those, seek out some of the methods of quantifying risk.

And don't forget to develop that strategy. Tools are useless if you don't know what you want to do with them.

Posted by Stock at 05:22 PM | Comments (0)

October 13, 2007

How To Research Stocks

As with gamblers in Las Vegas so it is with stock investments, 'everybody's got a system'. The goal of research, however, is to make the activity a lot less like gambling and a lot more like investment.

For those without the time or temperament to carry out research themselves, there are full time research services available - for a fee, of course. Full-Service brokerages, such as Merrill Lynch and other large, well-established firms offer research as part of their value to clients.

But there are firms, both traditional and the newer online variety, that offer research without the advice available from the broker. Whether the research (and the advice) are worth what it costs is an ongoing debate.

For those who see research not as a necessary evil or time-consuming burden, but as part of the process or even an adventure, there are now more sources than could be used in a lifetime.

Starting with the source of data is always a safe bet, since it's the most unbiased, thoroughly audited information around. That source is the legally required filings of individual publicly traded companies.

In the U.S. those are 10-K's - more or less equivalent to lengthy annual reports - which can be viewed or downloaded from the SEC's website (www.sec.gov). (10-Q's are filed quarterly, 8-K's for significant financial changes in between.) Other countries have their equivalents, such as the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission (HKSRC).

In those reports you'll find recent (as of the filing date) financial data about income, expectations, competition and lines of business, current senior management listings and other information useful to those inclined toward Fundamental Analysis.

Quarterly reports and annual reports are sent automatically to share holders, even those with only one share (though they're usually traded in lots of 100 or more.) But, they're often available free by calling or emailing the Investment Relations department; after all, companies want you to buy their stock. They contain the same factual data as 10-K's and 10-Q's but occasionally wording differs, for those interested in subtle details.

For a modest annual or one-time fee, a blizzard of chart data is available that matches any produced by the in-house research departments of the large brokerages. (Sometimes they're produced by the same people.)

Newsletters are another potentially good source of information, though opinions about the market vary so widely that researching whom to believe takes as much time and care as researching individual stocks. Sometimes they're a few dollars per year, sometimes many hundreds - and price is no indicator of quality here.

One direct source of one kind of information are the in-person, on TV, or on the Internet interviews of company senior managers, usually by one or a panel of analysts.

CEOs, CFOs, and others often talk to the financial press and brokerage stock analysts to give their views on where their company stands, what challenges they face, and where they expect to be in the near to long-term future. Often they're asked about specific pending lawsuits or legislation and to assess its potential impact.

Of course, executives have an interest in painting a rosy picture, but analysts have often heard it all and are very adept at keeping the 'spin factor' to a minimum. If nothing else, it tells you what the executives want you to believe, which in itself is useful.

Even armed with nothing more than an inexpensive online trading account, the average investor has access to charts of historical and current data, future expectations, and a wide variety of statistical information which would keep even the most technically inclined busy for quite some time.

Posted by Stock at 05:14 PM | Comments (0)

October 09, 2007

How To Evaluate Stocks

Stock picking is akin to weather prediction - no one can predict with certainty five hours from now if the price will rise or fall, much less five years from now.

Nevertheless, there are indicators that help to reduce the risk and increase the odds of profiting over the long term. After all, historically stocks have returned over 10%, as measured by the growth of the S&P 500.

The first step is to get educated. Learn not only about dividends yields and earnings per share, but also some basic accounting. Reported figures have an air of authority but the sad fact remains that those numbers are arrived at, in part, by accounting methods which are not cut and dried.

The Enron case (case in which the executives of Enron manipulated their earnings figures to appear to be much more
successful than they were) is extreme, but even ordinary procedures involve judgment calls on the part of financial officers and auditors.

Next, commit to continuing research about stocks both inside and outside your intended portfolio, and update it as you buy and sell. There's a broad spectrum between exact prediction and throwing darts blindly. In the long run, those who do their homework do far better and almost all day traders lose money. Research both prospective buys and intended sells. Many investors put considerable time and effort into analyzing a buy, but then only watch for some price to be reached in order to sell. Knowing when to sell is just as important, and a target should be selected before the stock is bought.

RESEARCHING BUYS

Obtain the latest, and some historical, financial statements. The SEC provides these free (www.sec.gov) in their EDGAR database, but other exchanges have similar arrangements.

Analyze the quarterly statements covering two to three years, looking for EPS (earnings per share) and revenue trends. Calculate dividend yields, if the company pays dividends.

Compare the company's P/E (Price to Earnings) ratio to others in the same economic sector. Look at P/S (Price to Sales) ratios, too. Sales growth is easier to predict than earnings and less volatile than P/E ratios.

Examine general economic factors. Interest rates affect stock prices as well as bonds (though less directly), since almost every company borrows money. Even when they don't, their competitors, suppliers, and customers do. Interest charges reduce profits for all but the lenders, for whom it's income.

Even when researching a bank, though, high interest rates increase short-term profits, but can reduce the number of loans and cause certain current ones to be repaid early. High interest rates aren't necessarily good for banks either, therefore.

Use some of the more common technical indicators, such as MA (moving averages) and RSI (Relative Strength Index, which compares the number of days a stock finishes up versus down). An RSI of 70, or above, for example, does tend to indicate a stock which is overbought and due for a fall in price.

RESEARCHING SELLS

Pick a target price, which amounts to deciding how much profit (in dollars or percentage terms) you seek then sell at that price, unless your continuing research has turned up significant new information.

Consider selling if the price has dropped substantially or remained unchanged for several months. Losses are hard to bear, but consider that you can't always pick winners and while you're invested in one stock, you're forgoing potential profit from another. That profit could help reduce or more than make up for the loss from the sale.

Continue to monitor the company's fundamentals by obtaining updated filings. Re-evaluate them by updating earnings trend calculations, significant management or general economic changes.

You can ease the difficulty of performing calculations (which is a useful exercise at least once) by finding Internet sites that provide objective data and go easy on the "here's how to pick winners" sales talk.

And remember, 'on the street' opinions are a dime a dozen - including mine.

Posted by Stock at 04:39 PM | Comments (0)

June 24, 2006

Stock Trading Signals

By following a trading system, market condition will at times be favourable to buy and at other times be favourable to sell. Clearly defined conditions give 'signals' that the educated investor can read and act on. Signals are not as crucial for the long term investor. For these people, market conditions and the value of particular companies can be watched on a daily basis. For day-traders, however, signals are crucial for acting quickly on stock market movements.

Investors who treat trading as a full-time job have the time to watch the market movements for signals. Oftentimes, however, signals can be automated and integrated into trading software. The investor can choose which signals to be alerted about and they will automatically appear on screen. Software signals are usually only available by subscription and some services charge hundreds of dollars a year for a complete package. This includes trading software and access to up-to-the-minute charts for the latest information about the stock market.

Investors who don't have the time to watch the market closely can subscribe to services which publish signals on a daily or hourly basis. These services may employ market analysts who may follow several indicators to arrive at a particular signal. More commonly, however, their systems are completely automated with signals being generated by software which examines market conditions. Some of these services have a better track record than others – it's a good idea to research them before signing up.

With any third-party signal provider it pays to know how the signals are being generated. Since there are such a large number of market indicators some of them may contradict each other. In addition, a particular indicator may send out conflicting signals depending on the time frame.

Market conditions also play an important part on the accuracy of indicators. During upswings in the market, for example, trend indicators will send out buy signals but longer-term oscillator indicators will view the market as being overbought and send out a sell signal. Generally speaking, trend indicators are most accurate during trend conditions and oscillators are best during times of transition. Both types of indicators are often in variance with the other.

To overcome these problems, try to find a signal generator that uses at least 3 market indicators for verification. Signals that are verified by 3 different indicators are strong and tend to be accurate. It is also important to look at signals from varying time frames. An upswing may simply be a short term correction and the market may afterwards continue its downward movement. Taking a broad view of market conditions allows you to see these variations more clearly.

Depending on the type of service you sign up for, signals can be delivered by email on a daily basis, available for viewing on a website, or be integrated into your trading software so that popups appear on your screen for particular signals that you are watching.

Companies which provide signals usually offer their services on a monthly basis. Some are quite expensive – as high as several hundred dollars a month. These are obviously aimed at the professional trader but other services are also available at more reasonable costs.

The value of these services has to be weighed by the individual investor. They can be a great time saver but they may also encourage laziness when it comes to analyzing the market. A knowledgeable trader should have the tools necessary to judge the effectiveness of a signal system and do some of the calculations himself to keep on top of the market.

Posted by Stock at 10:06 PM | Comments (0)

June 23, 2006

Trading Strategies

There are two basic ways to trade the stock market – shooting in the barrel or using strategies to determine which stocks to buy, when to sell, and how to protect your investment dollars. Needless to say, strategies outperform barrel shooting by a large margin. There are, however, hundreds of trading strategies to choose from. Of all of these there are a couple of tried and trued methods that have worked well for investors over many years. The beginning investor is advised to investigate some of these basic strategies and see for himself how they perform. New strategies can be explored once the basic ones are well-understood.

Hedging

Hedging is a way of protecting an investment by reducing the risks involved in holding a particular stock. The risk that the price of the stock will drop can be offset by buying a put option that allows you to sell at the stock at a particular price within a certain time frame. If the price of the stock falls, the value of the put option will increase.

Buying put options against individual stocks is the most expensive hedging strategy. If you have a broad portfolio a better option may be to buy a put option on the stock market itself. This protects you against general market declines. Another way to hedge against market declines is to sell financial futures like the S&P 500 futures.

Dogs of the Dow

This is a strategy that became popular during the 1990s. The idea is to buy the best-value stocks in the Dow Industrial Average by choosing the 10 stocks that have the lowest P/E ratios and the highest dividend yields. The companies on the Dow Index are mature companies that offer reliable investment performance. The idea is that the lowest 10 on the Dow have the most potential for growth over the coming year. A new twist on the Dogs of the Dow is the Pigs of the Dow. This strategy selects the worst 5 Dow stocks by looking at the percentage of price decline in the previous year. As with the Dogs, the idea is that the Pigs stand to rebound more than the others.

Buying on Margin

Buying on margin means to buy stocks with borrowed money – usually from your broker. Margin gives you more return than if you were to pay the full cost outright because you receive more stock for a lower initial investment. Margin buying can also be risky because if the stock loses value your losses will be correspondingly greater. When buying on margin the investor should have stop-loss orders in place to limit losses in the case of market reversal. The amount of margin should be limited to about 10% of the value of your total account.

Dollar Cost and Value Averaging

Dollar cost averaging involves investing a fixed dollar amount on a regular basis. An example would be buying shares of a mutual fund on a monthly basis. If the fund drops in price the investor will receive more shares for his money. Conversely, when the price is higher, the fixed amount will buy fewer shares. An alternative to this is value averaging. The investor decides on a regular value he wishes to invest.

For example, he may wish to invest $100 a month in a mutual fund. When the price of the fund is high he puts a higher dollar amount in the fund and when the price is low he spends less money. This averages out his investment to the original $100 per month. Value averaging almost always outperforms dollar cost averaging as a percentage return on the money invested. When used as part of a broader trading strategy it can help secure the growth of your investment fund.

Posted by Stock at 10:04 PM | Comments (0)

June 17, 2006

Fundamental Analysis Part One

The investor has many tools at hand when making decisions about which stocks to buy. One of the most useful of these is fundamental analysis – examining key ratios which show the worth of a stock and how a company is performing.

The goal of fundamental analysis is to determine how much money a company is making and what kind of earnings can be expected in the future. Although future earnings are always subject to interpretation, a good earning history creates confidence among investors. Stock prices increase and dividends may also be paid out.

Companies are required to report earnings on a regular basis and stock market analysts examine these figures to determine if a company is meeting its expected growth. If not, there is usually a downturn in the stock's price.

There are many tools available to help determine a company's earnings and its value on the stock market. Most of them rely on the financial statements provided by the company. Further fundamental analysis can be done to reveal details about the value of a company including its competitive advantages and the ratio of ownership between management and outside investors.

Financial Statements

Every publicly traded company must publish regular financial statements. These statements are available in printed form or on the Internet. All statements must include an income statement, a balance sheet, an auditor's report, a statement of cash flow, a description of the business activities and the expected revenue for the coming year.

Auditor's Report

The auditor's report is one of the most important sections of the financial statement. The auditor is an independent Certified Public Accountant firm which examines the company's financial activities to determine if the financial statement is an accurate description of the earnings. The auditor's report contains the opinion of the auditor concerning the accuracy of the financial statement. A financial statement without an independent auditor's report is essentially worthless because it could contain misleading or inaccurate information. An auditor's report, although not a guarantee of accuracy, at least provides credibility to the financial statement.

Balance Sheet

Another important section of the financial statement is the balance sheet. This is a 'snapshot' as it were, of the financial condition of the company at a single point in time. The balance sheet shows the relationship between assets (cash, property and equipment), liabilities (debt) and equity (retained earnings and stock).

Income Statement

The income statement shows information about the revenue, net income, and earnings per share over a period of time. The top line of the income statement shows the amount of income generated by sales, underneath which the costs incurred in doing business are deducted. The bottom line show the net income (or loss) and the income per share.

Cash Flow

The statement of cash flow is similar to the income statement – it provides a picture of a company's performance over time. The cash flow statement, however, does not use accounting procedures such as depreciation – it is simply an indicator of how a company handles income and expenses. A statement of cash flow shows incoming and outgoing cash from sales, investments, and financing. It is a good indicator about how the company is run on a day-to-day basis, how it handles creditors and from where it receives growth capital.

Posted by Stock at 09:29 PM | Comments (0)

June 05, 2006

Stock Basics

Understanding the stock market starts with understanding stocks. A stock represents partial ownership of a company – the smallest share possible. Company's issues stocks to raise capital and investors who buy stock are actually buying a portion of the company. Ownership, even a small share, gives investors rights to a say in how the company is run and a share in the profits (if any). While stocks give owners certain rights, they do not carry obligation in case the company defaults or faces a lawsuit. In a worst-case scenario the stock will become worthless but that is the limit to the investor's liability.

Companies issue stocks to raise capital. They may need a cash injection to expand or to acquire new properties. Each stock issue is limited to a certain number of shares, and when they are issued they are given a par value. The market quickly adjusts that par value according the perceived health of the company and its potential for growth.

Investors usually buy stocks because they believe the company will continue to grow and the value of their shares will rise accordingly. Investors who acquire stock in a new company are taking more of a risk than buying shares of well-established companies but the potential gain is much greater. Those who bought Microsoft shares early in the game (and did not sell them) saw an exponential rise in their value.

Stock trading is done on stock exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or NASDAQ (National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System). This means that only companies listed on a public exchange have shares that can be bought and sold on the open market. Of course, you could also buy partial ownership in a smaller company that is not listed on a stock exchange but that is a very different type of investment than buying stocks.

Because stocks must be bought and sold on a stock exchange, an individual investor needs a broker to make transactions for him. Brokers take orders to buy or sell a certain stock. The order may include instructions to trade at a certain price or simply what the market will bear. Once the broker receives the order he attempts to execute it by finding a buyer or seller as the case may be. The buyer or seller is also represented by a broker and each broker receives a commission on the sale.

Stocks have several advantages over savings investments. Because they represent ownership in a company they give the holder rights to participate in major decisions the company faces. Every share represents one vote and shareholders are regularly asked to vote on important matters. Ownership also allows stockholders to benefit from any profits the company makes. Profits are distributed in the form of dividends, and may be issued once or twice a year at the discretion of the company directors.

If the company prospers the value of the stock will rise and distribution of profits also increases. The downside of this is that if the company does poorly the value of the stocks may fall.

When compared with savings investments (like bonds or bank certificates of deposit) stocks have the potential to earn more money -- but they also carry the risk of loss. Learning about the stock market and the various investment strategies can help to minimize loss, and most investors find they do much better on the stock market than is possible with any kind of savings investment.

Posted by Stock at 09:07 PM | Comments (0)